Financial Advice

During the past few weeks of economic confusion, we have received two letters from our financial advisor. Yesterday evening, he called. Now, keep in mind, we are no top dollar clients, just a single income family with a rolled over IRA. Not only is it very gratifying to receive this level of attention, but the advice we've been getting has been very helpful and reassuring. I asked him if it would be alright if I shared part of his latest letter here and he said that would be fine. This was written Thursday evening just after the big drop in the stock market.

"Here is what I would expect over the coming days. The all out panic hits the market and, if today was not the bottom, expect havoc on Friday and/or Monday. I think once that happens and the system has cleansed itself of the panic, the market will rebound strongly. Unfortunately, it will not necessarily be over yet. The market has a tendency to test its bottoms. It did so in 2002, the DOW dipping into the 7,000s in July, rebounding strongly and retesting by dipping into the 7,000s once again in October 2002 which happened to be the bottom.

"The panic is here and the market should bottom very soon. Expect it to rebound quickly and decisively, but don't get too comfortable. Within a few weeks or months, it could very likely retest its lows and then we should see a sustainable rebound going forward.

"The economic news will get much worse. The market is pricing in the depth of the recession that "experts" are finally waking up to. The market will be on its way up long before the economy turns around. So don't worry too much about the economic news, the market is already ahead of your worries.

"On a side note, you may want to call your politicians and tell them to leave well enough alone. I don't see where their actions or their words are doing ANYTHING to help the situation. That being said, the market appears to now be ignoring the government and making its own adjustments. This is a VERY positive sign and it's the first time in a year that I feel I'm getting a good read on what the market is doing and I think it's trying hard to bottom out."

--David F. Boothe, President
BIG Investment Services

He also told us not to watch Glenn Beck, which made me wonder if he might know us a little too well. On a serious note, he predicts the world economy only has about another 30 good years before a major global collapse. This should give me more than enough time to build my concrete bunker and barricade myself inside it.

The Healing Powers of Bird Watching

When Austin was very young--about 4 or 5--he told me, "I was born to love birds." At the time I just thought it was cute, but now that he's almost 14, I have to believe him. Bird watching remains one of his favorite things to do in the world. His bird knowledge is impressive--from identification to migration patterns to imitating bird calls.

Recently, the Delmarva Ornithological Society started a youth birding club, called the Delaware Dunlins. This past Saturday was our 3rd outing with them. During a slideshow presentation on raptors, Austin actually raised his hand twice--not to answer a question, but just to ask one. This is remarkable behavior for my sweet, standoffish ASD child. Not only did he engage in this way, but the leaders are very appreciative of him. They recognize his interest and knowledge that he goes to such pains to hide from everyone and they look for ways to draw it out of him. And the other children are so kind and attentive to him, not showing the inclination to be put off by his antisocial behavior that I have come to expect. By the time we left Saturday, I wanted to hug everyone there (but wisely refrained). It means a great deal to me that there is a place where I can take my son and know that he will be accepted as a contributing member of the group.

To Bailout or Not?

I'm going to imagine that I am not alone in feeling utterly clueless about the economy. I mean, I feel confident when it comes to managing my personal finances--I use a budget, am debt free, have an emergency fund, and do my own taxes. However, when it comes to understanding what's at work behind the current financial collapses, freezes, mergers, and bailouts, I'm hopelessly confused.

However, I heard a very good explanation this morning from a CNBC panel regarding what will happen if no bailout takes place. Housing values will go down, our ability to borrow money (including the use of credit cards) will be greatly diminished, credit limits will be cut. Looming foreclosures will result in a drop in revenue generated by property taxes. This means that your community will either have to raise your property taxes or cut services or both. The most dramatic impact of this trend will be seen in the arena of public education.

Now, I realize that my cold-hearted conservatism is going to come out here, but I just have to say that, given all that, I would rather take my chances with no bailout. The sad fact of life is that bad things happen and I think it is a mistake to adopt the attitude that we should do whatever it takes to avoid hardship no matter what the cost. I have been hearing a lot of financial experts and political pundits telling us all that we have no other option. There is always another option. What happened to "Give me liberty, or give me death!"? If we could have avoided the attacks of 9-11 by giving up our freedom, would we have? Should we?

We have enjoyed such a long period of national prosperity, that I fear we have lost some of our fortitude and, therefore, our ability to choose the tough choice for the sake of preserving our ideals and our liberty. Let us not become so afraid of hard times and struggling that we will sell our very souls to avoid it.

And then . . .

I am sensing a subtle difference between Obama and McCain in this debate. Obama seems to be speaking in much broader, general terms, and McCain is speaking in specifics. McCain is making good use of his experience and is coming across very well as a potential leader who has really been in the situations Obama is only hypothesizing about.

Obama has just implied that Iran's rise to power is a result of the fact that we removed Iraq as a powerful enemy to keep it in check. Whether you agree with the fact that we went into Iraq in the first place, how can you say that the region would have been better off if Saddam Hussein was still in power?

I don't think there were any real surprises tonight. Obama got his points across well as best as I can tell. I don't agree with him, but I think he got himself across. But McCain definitely came across as more experienced and knowledgeable.

That's Debatable

Twenty minutes into the debate and the candidates are still debating tax breaks and what to spend our money on. I know I'm provincial, but I just don't like the idea of the government taking money from me to spend on non-essential items. Whenever I hear terms like "invest" with regard to taxpayer money, it just makes me want to throw things at my television. It's my job to invest my money, not the government's.

Thirty minutes in and John McCain finally said that he would consider a spending freeze on all non-essential government spending. Hallelujah! Of course, Obama considers that "using a hatchet where you should use a scalpel". But, if you're broke, you must cut everything out of your budget except that which sustains life. I just fear that we've gotten too much into being a country that doesn't trust its citizens with their own money.

Surprise Visitor

When you live in the woods--as I happily do--you are bound to get unexpected creatures in your house from time to time. I've experienced a whole variety of wild creatures invading my personal space: birds, bats, flying squirrels, lizards, etc. So I was not overwhelmingly shocked when I went into my basement and saw this:


Luckily, I was able to get this little 5-inch ring neck snake to sidewind its way into a jar and I was able to restore it to a more suitable habitat for all involved. He was a cute little guy, though.

Double Dipping

Delaware's longtime senator Joe Biden is running for re-election this year. There's really nothing unusual in that. Nothing, that is, until you consider that he is also running for vice president alongside Barack Obama. Before that, he was running for president. It seems as though Joe Biden is exceptionally eager for your vote in 2008, though he may be a little unsure as to which office he most wishes to occupy.

According to Delaware state law, Biden has the right to run for election in both campaigns at once. However, I don't see how any constituent could consider themselves well served by this practice. Not only is Biden shortchanging his senatorial duties to occupy himself with a national campaign, he is cheating Delawareans out of the chance to vote fairly for his replacement should he win both races and choose to resign from the Senate. In this case, Delaware's governor would fill his seat by appointment. This appointee would serve for two years, after which a special election would be held to finally allow voters a say. Obviously, the appointee would have a certain advantage in such an election, having been given two years to campaign while already on the job.

The whole business is utterly distasteful and only compounded by the fact that Biden is making no effort to hide his lack of regard for the state he represents. He has lived in Delaware since he was 10 years old and served in public office here since 1970, when he was 27. However, he continually promotes himself as being from Scranton, Pennsylvania. Interestingly, I don't hear Sarah Palin promoting herself as being from Idaho; instead she seems rather proud of her Alaskan home which has an even smaller population (and slower growth) than Delaware.

But take heart, Delawareans, Joe Biden still considers our state an adequate consolation prize should he fail at his greater quest.